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Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks

Blog

Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks

The Federal Reserve forecasts only a modest uptick in U.S. unemployment next year as inflation cools, but history and current labor market trends make us less certain.

Blog

Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase

Amid an outlook for slower growth and more moderate inflation, the Fed shifts to data dependence.

U.S. Inflation Outlook: A Meaningful Shift in the Second Half of 2023

Blog

U.S. Inflation Outlook: A Meaningful Shift in the Second Half of 2023

After stubborn U.S. inflation in the first half of 2023 kept the Federal Reserve raising rates, June’s softer inflation report suggests July may mark the end of the hiking cycle.

Rising Macro Risks May Limit Fed From Reaching Its Projected Peak

Blog

Rising Macro Risks May Limit Fed From Reaching Its Projected Peak

The Federal Reserve paused in June but raised its estimates for the policy rate later this year. We expect a July increase but remain skeptical about subsequent hikes.

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Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks

Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks

Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase

Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase

U.S. Inflation Outlook: A Meaningful Shift in the Second Half of 2023

U.S. Inflation Outlook: A Meaningful Shift in the Second Half of 2023

Rising Macro Risks May Limit Fed From Reaching Its Projected Peak

Rising Macro Risks May Limit Fed From Reaching Its Projected Peak